Target Price Playground
CRDO
$119.59
๐ข
CRDO IV: 85.9% โ LOW
(-20.8% vs 30d avg of 108.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.9 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.72 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRDO hits $140 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-1,962 (-49.5%) on $3,962 risked, vs +$2,041 (17.1%) for 100 shares on $11,959. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRDO is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRDO hits $140 by Jun 19
$-1,962
-49.5% on $3,962 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,962
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$80.38
-32.79% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.08 / -26.6 / 40.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRDO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 (-20%) | -$216 | -$667 | -$1,171 | -$1,529 |
| $102 (-15%) | -$359 | -$877 | -$1,500 | -$2,127 |
| $108 (-10%) | -$430 | -$1,002 | -$1,725 | -$2,725 |
| $114 (-5%) | -$431 | -$1,044 | -$1,839 | -$3,323 |
| $117 (-2%) | -$400 | -$1,030 | -$1,854 | -$3,682 |
| $120 (0%) โ spot | -$366 | -$1,006 | -$1,841 | -$3,921 |
| $122 (+2%) | -$323 | -$969 | -$1,812 | -$3,764 |
| $126 (+5%) | -$240 | -$892 | -$1,738 | -$3,405 |
| $132 (+10%) | -$58 | -$708 | -$1,538 | -$2,807 |
| $138 (+15%) | +$176 | -$463 | -$1,254 | -$2,209 |
| $140 (+17%) โ target | +$287 | -$345 | -$1,115 | -$1,962 |
| $144 (+20%) | +$457 | -$162 | -$898 | -$1,611 |
Uses CRDO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.