Target Price Playground
CRDO
$119.59
๐ข
CRDO IV: 85.9% โ LOW
(-20.8% vs 30d avg of 108.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $119.59 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.3 ยท ฮ 0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRDO hits $130 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,171 (20.0%) on $10,829 risked, vs +$1,041 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $11,959. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRDO is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRDO hits $130 by Jun 19
+$2,171
+20.0% on $10,829 risked
Max Profit
+$2,171
If the stock โฅ $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$10,829
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$108.29
-9.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
51.91 / 13.5 / -20.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRDO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 (-20%) | -$1,777 | -$1,567 | -$1,360 | -$1,262 |
| $102 (-15%) | -$1,361 | -$1,111 | -$841 | -$664 |
| $108 (-10%) | -$978 | -$693 | -$362 | -$66 |
| $114 (-5%) | -$628 | -$313 | +$72 | +$532 |
| $117 (-2%) | -$434 | -$104 | +$309 | +$891 |
| $120 (0%) โ spot | -$311 | +$27 | +$456 | +$1,130 |
| $122 (+2%) | -$194 | +$153 | +$595 | +$1,369 |
| $126 (+5%) | -$26 | +$330 | +$789 | +$1,728 |
| $130 (+9%) โ target | +$166 | +$531 | +$1,002 | +$2,171 |
| $132 (+10%) | +$230 | +$596 | +$1,070 | +$2,171 |
| $138 (+15%) | +$458 | +$829 | +$1,304 | +$2,171 |
| $144 (+20%) | +$661 | +$1,030 | +$1,494 | +$2,171 |
Uses CRDO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.