Target Price Playground
CRM
$164.96
๐ข
CRM IV: 45.0% โ LOW
(-22.4% vs 30d avg of 58.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.2 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.33 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRM hits $145 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$913 (155.5%) on $587 risked, vs $-1,996 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $16,496. Options give 12.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRM is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRM hits $145 by Jun 19
+$913
+155.5% on $587 risked
Max Profit
+$913
If the stock โค $150 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$587
Net debit
Break-even
$159.13
-3.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.8 / -0.91 / 4.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | +$653 | +$719 | +$820 | +$913 |
| $140 (-15%) | +$518 | +$576 | +$684 | +$913 |
| $145 (-12%) โ target | +$430 | +$476 | +$567 | +$913 |
| $148 (-10%) | +$364 | +$397 | +$468 | +$913 |
| $157 (-5%) | +$202 | +$201 | +$203 | +$242 |
| $162 (-2%) | +$106 | +$85 | +$42 | -$253 |
| $165 (0%) โ spot | +$44 | +$11 | -$58 | -$583 |
| $168 (+2%) | -$15 | -$60 | -$150 | -$587 |
| $173 (+5%) | -$98 | -$157 | -$270 | -$587 |
| $181 (+10%) | -$220 | -$293 | -$416 | -$587 |
| $190 (+15%) | -$319 | -$395 | -$503 | -$587 |
| $198 (+20%) | -$397 | -$467 | -$550 | -$587 |
Uses CRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.