Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRM hits $175 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$733 (5.1%) on $-733 credit (max loss $14,267), vs +$1,004 (6.1%) for 100 shares on $16,496. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRM is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | -$1,376 | -$1,258 | -$1,131 | -$1,070 |
| $140 (-15%) | -$845 | -$686 | -$485 | -$245 |
| $148 (-10%) | -$412 | -$230 | +$12 | +$579 |
| $157 (-5%) | -$73 | +$110 | +$349 | +$733 |
| $162 (-2%) | +$88 | +$264 | +$483 | +$733 |
| $165 (0%) โ spot | +$181 | +$348 | +$549 | +$733 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$262 | +$420 | +$600 | +$733 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$364 | +$506 | +$653 | +$733 |
| $175 (+6%) โ target | +$396 | +$531 | +$667 | +$733 |
| $181 (+10%) | +$492 | +$604 | +$702 | +$733 |
| $190 (+15%) | +$579 | +$662 | +$722 | +$733 |
| $198 (+20%) | +$637 | +$696 | +$729 | +$733 |