Target Price Playground
CRM
$164.96
๐ข
CRM IV: 45.0% โ LOW
(-22.4% vs 30d avg of 58.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $164.96 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.71 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRM hits $180 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,275 (14.5%) on $15,725 risked, vs +$1,504 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $16,496. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRM is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRM hits $180 by Jun 19
+$2,275
+14.5% on $15,725 risked
Max Profit
+$2,275
If the stock โฅ $180 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$15,725
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$157.25
-4.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.33 / 9.94 / -25.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | -$2,599 | -$2,551 | -$2,530 | -$2,528 |
| $140 (-15%) | -$1,850 | -$1,766 | -$1,711 | -$1,703 |
| $148 (-10%) | -$1,154 | -$1,023 | -$912 | -$879 |
| $157 (-5%) | -$522 | -$341 | -$156 | -$54 |
| $162 (-2%) | -$179 | +$30 | +$262 | +$441 |
| $165 (0%) โ spot | +$34 | +$259 | +$521 | +$771 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$234 | +$473 | +$762 | +$1,101 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$508 | +$764 | +$1,084 | +$1,596 |
| $180 (+9%) โ target | +$837 | +$1,106 | +$1,448 | +$2,275 |
| $190 (+15%) | +$1,217 | +$1,483 | +$1,813 | +$2,275 |
| $198 (+20%) | +$1,464 | +$1,714 | +$2,003 | +$2,275 |
Uses CRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.