Target Price Playground
CRM
$164.96
๐ข
CRM IV: 45.0% โ LOW
(-22.4% vs 30d avg of 58.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $165 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.03 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.95 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRM hits $155 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$770 (126.6%) on $608 risked, vs $-996 (-6.0%) for 100 shares on $16,496. Options give 21.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRM is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRM hits $155 by Jun 19
+$770
+126.6% on $608 risked
Max Profit
+$766
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$590
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$170.07
+3.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.7 / 1.6 / 6.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | +$316 | +$352 | +$386 | +$362 |
| $140 (-15%) | +$278 | +$326 | +$393 | +$422 |
| $148 (-10%) | +$219 | +$271 | +$358 | +$555 |
| $155 (-6%) โ target | +$159 | +$206 | +$290 | +$737 |
| $157 (-5%) | +$142 | +$186 | +$266 | +$627 |
| $162 (-2%) | +$89 | +$124 | +$185 | +$340 |
| $165 (0%) โ spot | +$52 | +$79 | +$124 | +$176 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$14 | +$32 | +$60 | +$33 |
| $173 (+5%) | -$43 | -$39 | -$39 | -$144 |
| $181 (+10%) | -$138 | -$155 | -$195 | -$352 |
| $190 (+15%) | -$227 | -$260 | -$326 | -$475 |
| $198 (+20%) | -$306 | -$350 | -$424 | -$544 |
Uses CRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.