Target Price Playground
CRM
$164.96
๐ข
CRM IV: 43.7% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 58.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.2 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRM hits $145 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$680 (51.5%) on $1,320 risked, vs $-1,996 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $16,496. Options give 4.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRM is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRM hits $145 by Jun 19
+$680
+51.5% on $1,320 risked
Max Profit
+$15,180
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,320
Premium paid
Break-even
$151.80
-7.98% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.35 / -9.67 / 27.7
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | +$2,029 | +$1,977 | +$1,951 | +$1,983 |
| $140 (-15%) | +$1,363 | +$1,262 | +$1,169 | +$1,158 |
| $145 (-12%) โ target | +$1,012 | +$883 | +$745 | +$680 |
| $148 (-10%) | +$776 | +$627 | +$456 | +$334 |
| $157 (-5%) | +$275 | +$91 | -$146 | -$491 |
| $162 (-2%) | +$18 | -$179 | -$440 | -$986 |
| $165 (0%) โ spot | -$136 | -$338 | -$607 | -$1,316 |
| $168 (+2%) | -$276 | -$480 | -$750 | -$1,320 |
| $173 (+5%) | -$462 | -$663 | -$923 | -$1,320 |
| $181 (+10%) | -$712 | -$897 | -$1,118 | -$1,320 |
| $190 (+15%) | -$899 | -$1,057 | -$1,225 | -$1,320 |
| $198 (+20%) | -$1,033 | -$1,162 | -$1,279 | -$1,320 |
Uses CRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.