Target Price Playground
CRM
$164.96
๐ข
CRM IV: 45.0% โ LOW
(-22.4% vs 30d avg of 58.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $164.96 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.95 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRM hits $180 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$609 (3.5%) on $17,391 risked, vs +$1,504 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $16,496. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRM is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRM hits $180 by Jun 19
+$609
+3.5% on $17,391 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,891
Put floors you at $155
Break-even
$173.91
+5.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.18 / -9.22 / 26.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | -$1,693 | -$1,789 | -$1,878 | -$1,891 |
| $140 (-15%) | -$1,450 | -$1,593 | -$1,761 | -$1,891 |
| $148 (-10%) | -$1,114 | -$1,291 | -$1,521 | -$1,891 |
| $157 (-5%) | -$684 | -$874 | -$1,128 | -$1,720 |
| $162 (-2%) | -$382 | -$572 | -$819 | -$1,225 |
| $165 (0%) โ spot | -$164 | -$350 | -$586 | -$895 |
| $168 (+2%) | +$66 | -$113 | -$333 | -$565 |
| $173 (+5%) | +$432 | +$267 | +$77 | -$70 |
| $180 (+9%) โ target | +$972 | +$829 | +$683 | +$609 |
| $190 (+15%) | +$1,801 | +$1,694 | +$1,604 | +$1,579 |
| $198 (+20%) | +$2,547 | +$2,467 | +$2,413 | +$2,404 |
Uses CRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.