Target Price Playground
CRM
$164.96
๐ข
CRM IV: 43.7% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 58.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.0 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $165 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.2 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRM hits $190 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-220 (-8.1%) on $2,720 risked, vs +$2,504 (15.2%) for 100 shares on $16,496. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRM is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRM hits $190 by Jun 19
$-220
-8.1% on $2,720 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,720
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$137.80
-16.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.68 / -20.86 / 55.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $132 (-20%) | +$810 | +$663 | +$566 | +$583 |
| $140 (-15%) | +$303 | +$57 | -$172 | -$242 |
| $148 (-10%) | -$47 | -$388 | -$775 | -$1,066 |
| $157 (-5%) | -$223 | -$635 | -$1,155 | -$1,891 |
| $162 (-2%) | -$243 | -$681 | -$1,248 | -$2,386 |
| $165 (0%) โ spot | -$221 | -$668 | -$1,251 | -$2,716 |
| $168 (+2%) | -$171 | -$622 | -$1,207 | -$2,394 |
| $173 (+5%) | -$48 | -$494 | -$1,058 | -$1,899 |
| $181 (+10%) | +$277 | -$137 | -$622 | -$1,074 |
| $190 (+15%) โ target | +$747 | +$387 | +$11 | -$220 |
| $198 (+20%) | +$1,284 | +$982 | +$704 | +$575 |
Uses CRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.