Target Price Playground
CRWD
$379.02
๐ข
CRWD IV: 50.0% โ LOW
(-20.9% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $335 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.5 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.75 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $335 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,625 (118.2%) on $1,375 risked, vs $-4,402 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $37,902. Options give 10.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $335 by Jun 19
+$1,625
+118.2% on $1,375 risked
Max Profit
+$1,625
If the stock โค $350 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,375
Net debit
Break-even
$366.25
-3.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-13.67 / -0.52 / 3.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $303 (-20%) | +$1,071 | +$1,201 | +$1,409 | +$1,625 |
| $322 (-15%) | +$827 | +$937 | +$1,149 | +$1,625 |
| $335 (-12%) โ target | +$644 | +$726 | +$898 | +$1,625 |
| $341 (-10%) | +$553 | +$618 | +$760 | +$1,625 |
| $360 (-5%) | +$267 | +$272 | +$292 | +$618 |
| $371 (-2%) | +$97 | +$65 | +$4 | -$519 |
| $379 (0%) โ spot | -$13 | -$69 | -$181 | -$1,277 |
| $387 (+2%) | -$120 | -$198 | -$355 | -$1,375 |
| $398 (+5%) | -$274 | -$381 | -$590 | -$1,375 |
| $417 (+10%) | -$505 | -$646 | -$899 | -$1,375 |
| $436 (+15%) | -$702 | -$858 | -$1,107 | -$1,375 |
| $455 (+20%) | -$864 | -$1,020 | -$1,235 | -$1,375 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.