Target Price Playground
CRWD
$379.02
๐ข
CRWD IV: 49.2% โ LOW
(-22.1% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $425 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $33.25 ยท ฮ 0.52
SHORT CALL ยท $410 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.9 ยท ฮ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $425 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,865 (164.3%) on $1,135 risked, vs +$4,598 (12.1%) for 100 shares on $37,902. Options give 13.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $425. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $425 by Jun 19
+$1,865
+164.3% on $1,135 risked
Max Profit
+$1,865
If the stock โฅ $410 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,135
Net debit
Break-even
$391.35
+3.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.42 / -2.0 / 5.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $303 (-20%) | -$841 | -$951 | -$1,082 | -$1,135 |
| $322 (-15%) | -$670 | -$792 | -$980 | -$1,135 |
| $341 (-10%) | -$456 | -$569 | -$781 | -$1,135 |
| $360 (-5%) | -$212 | -$292 | -$467 | -$1,135 |
| $371 (-2%) | -$57 | -$108 | -$231 | -$1,135 |
| $379 (0%) โ spot | +$49 | +$20 | -$60 | -$1,135 |
| $387 (+2%) | +$155 | +$148 | +$117 | -$475 |
| $398 (+5%) | +$313 | +$341 | +$385 | +$662 |
| $417 (+10%) | +$567 | +$649 | +$807 | +$1,865 |
| $425 (+12%) โ target | +$670 | +$772 | +$968 | +$1,865 |
| $436 (+15%) | +$801 | +$926 | +$1,161 | +$1,865 |
| $455 (+20%) | +$1,008 | +$1,161 | +$1,426 | +$1,865 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.