Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $400 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$2,375 (7.3%) on $-2,375 credit (max loss $32,625), vs +$2,098 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $37,902. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $303 (-20%) | -$3,138 | -$2,820 | -$2,477 | -$2,303 |
| $322 (-15%) | -$1,912 | -$1,498 | -$983 | -$408 |
| $341 (-10%) | -$886 | -$412 | +$216 | +$1,487 |
| $360 (-5%) | -$54 | +$439 | +$1,090 | +$2,375 |
| $371 (-2%) | +$359 | +$844 | +$1,468 | +$2,375 |
| $379 (0%) โ spot | +$601 | +$1,075 | +$1,667 | +$2,375 |
| $387 (+2%) | +$819 | +$1,276 | +$1,829 | +$2,375 |
| $400 (+6%) โ target | +$1,149 | +$1,568 | +$2,039 | +$2,375 |
| $417 (+10%) | +$1,478 | +$1,840 | +$2,202 | +$2,375 |
| $436 (+15%) | +$1,752 | +$2,045 | +$2,298 | +$2,375 |
| $455 (+20%) | +$1,948 | +$2,177 | +$2,342 | +$2,375 |