Target Price Playground
CRWD
$379.02
๐ข
CRWD IV: 50.0% โ LOW
(-20.9% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $425 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $379.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $425 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$4,598 (12.1%) on $37,902 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $425 by Jun 19
+$4,598
+12.1% on $37,902 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$37,902
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$379.02
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $303 (-20%) | -$7,580 | -$7,580 | -$7,580 |
| $322 (-15%) | -$5,685 | -$5,685 | -$5,685 |
| $341 (-10%) | -$3,790 | -$3,790 | -$3,790 |
| $360 (-5%) | -$1,895 | -$1,895 | -$1,895 |
| $371 (-2%) | -$758 | -$758 | -$758 |
| $379 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $387 (+2%) | +$758 | +$758 | +$758 |
| $398 (+5%) | +$1,895 | +$1,895 | +$1,895 |
| $417 (+10%) | +$3,790 | +$3,790 | +$3,790 |
| $425 (+12%) โ target | +$4,598 | +$4,598 | +$4,598 |
| $436 (+15%) | +$5,685 | +$5,685 | +$5,685 |
| $455 (+20%) | +$7,580 | +$7,580 | +$7,580 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.