Target Price Playground
CRWD
$379.02
๐ข
CRWD IV: 49.2% โ LOW
(-22.1% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $379.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $360 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.77 ยท ฮ -0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $415 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$821 (2.0%) on $40,679 risked, vs +$3,598 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $37,902. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $415 by Jun 19
+$821
+2.0% on $40,679 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$4,679
Put floors you at $360
Break-even
$406.79
+7.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.02 / -23.06 / 62.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $303 (-20%) | -$4,062 | -$4,338 | -$4,606 | -$4,679 |
| $322 (-15%) | -$3,482 | -$3,865 | -$4,316 | -$4,679 |
| $341 (-10%) | -$2,710 | -$3,173 | -$3,771 | -$4,679 |
| $360 (-5%) | -$1,746 | -$2,248 | -$2,917 | -$4,672 |
| $371 (-2%) | -$1,079 | -$1,586 | -$2,254 | -$3,535 |
| $379 (0%) โ spot | -$599 | -$1,102 | -$1,753 | -$2,777 |
| $387 (+2%) | -$94 | -$587 | -$1,210 | -$2,019 |
| $398 (+5%) | +$710 | +$241 | -$326 | -$882 |
| $415 (+9%) โ target | +$2,005 | +$1,585 | +$1,124 | +$821 |
| $436 (+15%) | +$3,718 | +$3,372 | +$3,042 | +$2,908 |
| $455 (+20%) | +$5,369 | +$5,090 | +$4,863 | +$4,803 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.