Target Price Playground
CRWD
$379.02
๐ข
CRWD IV: 50.0% โ LOW
(-20.9% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $435 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $33.25 ยท ฮ 0.52
LONG PUT ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.5 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $435 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-1,575 (-22.3%) on $7,075 risked, vs +$5,598 (14.8%) for 100 shares on $37,902. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $435. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $435 by Jun 19
$-1,575
-22.3% on $7,075 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$7,075
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$309.25
-18.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
4.12 / -50.48 / 128.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $303 (-20%) | +$1,478 | +$999 | +$628 | +$603 |
| $322 (-15%) | +$433 | -$276 | -$986 | -$1,292 |
| $341 (-10%) | -$272 | -$1,193 | -$2,267 | -$3,187 |
| $360 (-5%) | -$614 | -$1,692 | -$3,057 | -$5,082 |
| $371 (-2%) | -$642 | -$1,779 | -$3,252 | -$6,219 |
| $379 (0%) โ spot | -$589 | -$1,750 | -$3,261 | -$6,977 |
| $387 (+2%) | -$481 | -$1,653 | -$3,175 | -$6,415 |
| $398 (+5%) | -$219 | -$1,386 | -$2,875 | -$5,278 |
| $417 (+10%) | +$464 | -$643 | -$1,977 | -$3,383 |
| $435 (+15%) โ target | +$1,369 | +$361 | -$756 | -$1,575 |
| $455 (+20%) | +$2,596 | +$1,723 | +$861 | +$407 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.