Target Price Playground
CRWD
$379.02
๐ข
CRWD IV: 49.2% โ LOW
(-22.1% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $410 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $379.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $410 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.9 ยท ฮ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $410 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$5,288 (14.8%) on $35,712 risked, vs +$3,098 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $37,902. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $410. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $410 by Jun 19
+$5,288
+14.8% on $35,712 risked
Max Profit
+$5,288
If the stock โฅ $410 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$35,712
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$357.12
-5.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.09 / 25.21 / -59.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $303 (-20%) | -$5,690 | -$5,510 | -$5,403 | -$5,390 |
| $322 (-15%) | -$4,049 | -$3,765 | -$3,547 | -$3,495 |
| $341 (-10%) | -$2,535 | -$2,136 | -$1,760 | -$1,600 |
| $360 (-5%) | -$1,173 | -$663 | -$103 | +$295 |
| $371 (-2%) | -$434 | +$134 | +$799 | +$1,432 |
| $379 (0%) โ spot | +$24 | +$626 | +$1,353 | +$2,190 |
| $387 (+2%) | +$455 | +$1,085 | +$1,866 | +$2,948 |
| $398 (+5%) | +$1,050 | +$1,713 | +$2,553 | +$4,085 |
| $410 (+8%) โ target | +$1,615 | +$2,297 | +$3,169 | +$5,288 |
| $417 (+10%) | +$1,910 | +$2,597 | +$3,474 | +$5,288 |
| $436 (+15%) | +$2,614 | +$3,292 | +$4,131 | +$5,288 |
| $455 (+20%) | +$3,180 | +$3,821 | +$4,568 | +$5,288 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.