Target Price Playground
CRWD
$379.02
๐ข
CRWD IV: 49.2% โ LOW
(-22.1% vs 30d avg of 63.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $335 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.5 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $335 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$750 (20.0%) on $3,750 risked, vs $-4,402 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $37,902. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $335 by Jun 19
+$750
+20.0% on $3,750 risked
Max Profit
+$34,250
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$3,750
Premium paid
Break-even
$342.50
-9.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-48.21 / -23.27 / 64.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $303 (-20%) | +$4,209 | +$4,021 | +$3,887 | +$3,928 |
| $322 (-15%) | +$2,739 | +$2,436 | +$2,132 | +$2,033 |
| $335 (-12%) โ target | +$1,840 | +$1,462 | +$1,034 | +$750 |
| $341 (-10%) | +$1,439 | +$1,030 | +$544 | +$138 |
| $360 (-5%) | +$321 | -$167 | -$798 | -$1,757 |
| $371 (-2%) | -$262 | -$779 | -$1,465 | -$2,894 |
| $379 (0%) โ spot | -$615 | -$1,144 | -$1,848 | -$3,652 |
| $387 (+2%) | -$939 | -$1,474 | -$2,184 | -$3,750 |
| $398 (+5%) | -$1,377 | -$1,909 | -$2,602 | -$3,750 |
| $417 (+10%) | -$1,983 | -$2,485 | -$3,101 | -$3,750 |
| $436 (+15%) | -$2,453 | -$2,903 | -$3,405 | -$3,750 |
| $455 (+20%) | -$2,812 | -$3,197 | -$3,577 | -$3,750 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.