Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CTSH hits $61 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$149 (2.9%) on $-149 credit (max loss $5,151), vs +$308 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $5,792. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTSH is at $61. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CTSH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 (-20%) | -$572 | -$545 | -$519 | -$517 |
| $49 (-15%) | -$371 | -$328 | -$276 | -$228 |
| $52 (-10%) | -$210 | -$157 | -$87 | +$62 |
| $55 (-5%) | -$88 | -$34 | +$36 | +$149 |
| $57 (-2%) | -$31 | +$19 | +$82 | +$149 |
| $58 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$47 | +$103 | +$149 |
| $59 (+2%) | +$26 | +$70 | +$118 | +$149 |
| $61 (+5%) โ target | +$61 | +$98 | +$134 | +$149 |
| $64 (+10%) | +$96 | +$123 | +$144 | +$149 |
| $67 (+15%) | +$119 | +$137 | +$148 | +$149 |
| $70 (+20%) | +$133 | +$144 | +$149 | +$149 |