Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVLT hits $93 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$471 (6.1%) on $-471 credit (max loss $7,729), vs +$413 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $8,887. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVLT is at $93. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVLT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 (-20%) | -$863 | -$776 | -$679 | -$619 |
| $76 (-15%) | -$584 | -$476 | -$340 | -$175 |
| $80 (-10%) | -$349 | -$227 | -$66 | +$269 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$155 | -$28 | +$138 | +$471 |
| $87 (-2%) | -$57 | +$67 | +$228 | +$471 |
| $89 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$123 | +$277 | +$471 |
| $91 (+2%) | +$53 | +$172 | +$317 | +$471 |
| $93 (+5%) โ target | +$115 | +$228 | +$360 | +$471 |
| $98 (+10%) | +$216 | +$314 | +$416 | +$471 |
| $102 (+15%) | +$286 | +$369 | +$444 | +$471 |
| $107 (+20%) | +$339 | +$406 | +$458 | +$471 |