Target Price Playground
CVX
$188.55
๐ข
CVX IV: 29.9% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.3 ยท ฮ -0.49
SHORT PUT ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.15 ยท ฮ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVX hits $165 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$885 (143.9%) on $615 risked, vs $-2,355 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $18,855. Options give 11.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVX is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CVX hits $165 by Jun 19
+$885
+143.9% on $615 risked
Max Profit
+$885
If the stock โค $175 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$615
Net debit
Break-even
$183.85
-2.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-23.83 / -1.07 / 5.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$764 | +$818 | +$869 | +$885 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$634 | +$705 | +$805 | +$885 |
| $165 (-12%) โ target | +$544 | +$614 | +$729 | +$885 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$442 | +$502 | +$612 | +$885 |
| $179 (-5%) | +$212 | +$232 | +$271 | +$473 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$71 | +$61 | +$38 | -$93 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$19 | -$48 | -$108 | -$470 |
| $192 (+2%) | -$104 | -$148 | -$237 | -$615 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$219 | -$280 | -$390 | -$615 |
| $207 (+10%) | -$372 | -$440 | -$537 | -$615 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$476 | -$533 | -$594 | -$615 |
| $226 (+20%) | -$541 | -$581 | -$610 | -$615 |
Uses CVX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.