Target Price Playground
CVX
$188.55
๐ข
CVX IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.05 ยท ฮ 0.51
SHORT CALL ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.33 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVX hits $210 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,128 (303.7%) on $372 risked, vs +$2,145 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $18,855. Options give 26.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVX is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CVX hits $210 by Jun 19
+$1,128
+303.7% on $372 risked
Max Profit
+$1,128
If the stock โฅ $205 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$372
Net debit
Break-even
$193.72
+2.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
20.79 / 0.09 / 3.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$343 | -$363 | -$372 | -$372 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$290 | -$333 | -$366 | -$372 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$189 | -$253 | -$332 | -$372 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$34 | -$100 | -$212 | -$372 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$82 | +$29 | -$74 | -$372 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$166 | +$126 | +$44 | -$372 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$253 | +$230 | +$179 | -$140 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$384 | +$389 | +$396 | +$426 |
| $207 (+10%) | +$591 | +$637 | +$727 | +$1,128 |
| $210 (+11%) โ target | +$642 | +$697 | +$800 | +$1,128 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$764 | +$833 | +$950 | +$1,128 |
| $226 (+20%) | +$895 | +$966 | +$1,062 | +$1,128 |
Uses CVX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.