Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVX hits $200 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$415 (2.4%) on $-415 credit (max loss $17,085), vs +$1,145 (6.1%) for 100 shares on $18,855. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVX is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$2,002 | -$1,973 | -$1,964 | -$2,001 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$1,264 | -$1,179 | -$1,090 | -$1,058 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$671 | -$544 | -$377 | -$115 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$238 | -$100 | +$83 | +$415 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$49 | +$80 | +$241 | +$415 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$51 | +$169 | +$307 | +$415 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$132 | +$238 | +$351 | +$415 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$226 | +$311 | +$388 | +$415 |
| $200 (+6%) โ target | +$252 | +$329 | +$395 | +$415 |
| $207 (+10%) | +$323 | +$375 | +$410 | +$415 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$373 | +$401 | +$414 | +$415 |
| $226 (+20%) | +$397 | +$411 | +$415 | +$415 |