Target Price Playground
CVX
$188.55
๐ข
CVX IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $188.55 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.33 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVX hits $205 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,078 (11.3%) on $18,422 risked, vs +$1,645 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $18,855. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVX is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CVX hits $205 by Jun 19
+$2,078
+11.3% on $18,422 risked
Max Profit
+$2,078
If the stock โฅ $205 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$18,422
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$184.22
-2.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.92 / 6.94 / -28.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$3,346 | -$3,339 | -$3,338 | -$3,338 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$2,424 | -$2,402 | -$2,395 | -$2,395 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$1,538 | -$1,484 | -$1,455 | -$1,452 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$720 | -$616 | -$533 | -$510 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$274 | -$137 | -$5 | +$56 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$158 | +$326 | +$433 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$253 | +$431 | +$634 | +$810 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$593 | +$794 | +$1,040 | +$1,376 |
| $205 (+9%) โ target | +$945 | +$1,161 | +$1,434 | +$2,078 |
| $207 (+10%) | +$1,049 | +$1,266 | +$1,539 | +$2,078 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$1,377 | +$1,582 | +$1,824 | +$2,078 |
| $226 (+20%) | +$1,597 | +$1,772 | +$1,953 | +$2,078 |
Uses CVX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.