Target Price Playground
CVX
$188.55
๐ข
CVX IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.85 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.65 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVX hits $180 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$654 (125.7%) on $520 risked, vs $-855 (-4.5%) for 100 shares on $18,855. Options give 27.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVX is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CVX hits $180 by Jun 19
+$654
+125.7% on $520 risked
Max Profit
+$649
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$520
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$191.26
+1.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.5 / 0.94 / 7.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$401 | +$418 | +$423 | +$416 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$370 | +$405 | +$437 | +$427 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$303 | +$351 | +$421 | +$480 |
| $180 (-5%) โ target | +$187 | +$230 | +$304 | +$669 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$122 | +$154 | +$209 | +$355 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$68 | +$89 | +$123 | +$147 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$12 | +$21 | +$32 | -$25 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$71 | -$79 | -$102 | -$220 |
| $207 (+10%) | -$199 | -$229 | -$286 | -$406 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$304 | -$344 | -$404 | -$484 |
| $226 (+20%) | -$383 | -$421 | -$468 | -$510 |
Uses CVX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.