Target Price Playground
CVX
$188.55
๐ข
CVX IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.3 ยท ฮ -0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVX hits $165 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,470 (142.7%) on $1,030 risked, vs $-2,355 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $18,855. Options give 11.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVX is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CVX hits $165 by Jun 19
+$1,470
+142.7% on $1,030 risked
Max Profit
+$17,970
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,030
Premium paid
Break-even
$179.70
-4.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-49.0 / -6.56 / 31.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$2,766 | +$2,791 | +$2,833 | +$2,886 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$1,897 | +$1,884 | +$1,895 | +$1,943 |
| $165 (-12%) โ target | +$1,491 | +$1,452 | +$1,434 | +$1,470 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$1,113 | +$1,046 | +$989 | +$1,000 |
| $179 (-5%) | +$450 | +$332 | +$188 | +$58 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$120 | -$19 | -$203 | -$508 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$70 | -$217 | -$416 | -$885 |
| $192 (+2%) | -$236 | -$387 | -$588 | -$1,030 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$445 | -$590 | -$778 | -$1,030 |
| $207 (+10%) | -$695 | -$815 | -$947 | -$1,030 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$849 | -$934 | -$1,008 | -$1,030 |
| $226 (+20%) | -$938 | -$991 | -$1,025 | -$1,030 |
Uses CVX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.