Target Price Playground
CVX
$188.55
๐ข
CVX IV: 29.9% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $188.55 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.65 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVX hits $205 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,080 (5.6%) on $19,420 risked, vs +$1,645 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $18,855. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVX is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CVX hits $205 by Jun 19
+$1,080
+5.6% on $19,420 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,420
Put floors you at $180
Break-even
$194.20
+3.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.54 / -6.23 / 30.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$1,474 | -$1,482 | -$1,467 | -$1,420 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$1,324 | -$1,385 | -$1,434 | -$1,420 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$1,049 | -$1,160 | -$1,297 | -$1,420 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$621 | -$762 | -$951 | -$1,420 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$291 | -$432 | -$619 | -$942 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$42 | -$178 | -$351 | -$565 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$227 | +$100 | -$52 | -$188 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$666 | +$557 | +$442 | +$378 |
| $205 (+9%) โ target | +$1,257 | +$1,174 | +$1,103 | +$1,080 |
| $207 (+10%) | +$1,469 | +$1,396 | +$1,336 | +$1,321 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$2,335 | +$2,291 | +$2,266 | +$2,263 |
| $226 (+20%) | +$3,239 | +$3,216 | +$3,206 | +$3,206 |
Uses CVX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.