Target Price Playground
CVX
$188.55
๐ข
CVX IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.05 ยท ฮ 0.51
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.3 ยท ฮ -0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVX hits $215 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$665 (36.2%) on $1,835 risked, vs +$2,645 (14.0%) for 100 shares on $18,855. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVX is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CVX hits $215 by Jun 19
+$665
+36.2% on $1,835 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,835
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$171.65
-8.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
1.87 / -13.41 / 63.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$1,998 | +$1,997 | +$2,028 | +$2,081 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$1,203 | +$1,126 | +$1,096 | +$1,138 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$576 | +$392 | +$227 | +$195 |
| $179 (-5%) | +$193 | -$94 | -$434 | -$747 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$100 | -$230 | -$649 | -$1,313 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$97 | -$249 | -$697 | -$1,690 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$141 | -$211 | -$666 | -$1,603 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$289 | -$53 | -$478 | -$1,037 |
| $207 (+10%) | +$732 | +$441 | +$127 | -$94 |
| $215 (+14%) โ target | +$1,231 | +$996 | +$777 | +$665 |
| $226 (+20%) | +$2,132 | +$1,974 | +$1,854 | +$1,791 |
Uses CVX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.