Target Price Playground
CVX
$188.55
๐ข
CVX IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 46.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.05 ยท ฮ 0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CVX hits $210 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$1,195 (148.4%) on $805 risked, vs +$2,145 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $18,855. Options give 13.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CVX is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CVX hits $210 by Jun 19
+$1,195
+148.4% on $805 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$805
Premium paid
Break-even
$198.05
+5.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.87 / -6.85 / 31.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CVX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$768 | -$795 | -$805 | -$805 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$694 | -$759 | -$799 | -$805 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$536 | -$654 | -$762 | -$805 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$257 | -$426 | -$622 | -$805 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$21 | -$211 | -$446 | -$805 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$167 | -$32 | -$282 | -$805 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$377 | +$176 | -$77 | -$573 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$734 | +$538 | +$299 | -$7 |
| $207 (+10%) | +$1,427 | +$1,256 | +$1,073 | +$936 |
| $210 (+11%) โ target | +$1,636 | +$1,474 | +$1,308 | +$1,195 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$2,215 | +$2,079 | +$1,954 | +$1,878 |
| $226 (+20%) | +$3,070 | +$2,965 | +$2,880 | +$2,821 |
Uses CVX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.