Target Price Playground
DBX
$22.06
๐ข
DBX IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 98.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $25 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.61 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $24 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.84 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DBX hits $25 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$122 (157.9%) on $78 risked, vs +$244 (11.1%) for 100 shares on $2,206. Options give 14.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DBX is at $25. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DBX hits $25 by Jun 19
+$122
+157.9% on $78 risked
Max Profit
+$122
If the stock โฅ $24 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$78
Net debit
Break-even
$22.78
+3.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
20.03 / -0.1 / 0.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DBX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 (-20%) | -$65 | -$71 | -$76 | -$77 |
| $19 (-15%) | -$55 | -$63 | -$72 | -$77 |
| $20 (-10%) | -$40 | -$48 | -$62 | -$77 |
| $21 (-5%) | -$21 | -$28 | -$41 | -$77 |
| $22 (-2%) | -$8 | -$13 | -$24 | -$77 |
| $22 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$3 | -$10 | -$71 |
| $23 (+2%) | +$9 | +$8 | +$4 | -$27 |
| $23 (+5%) | +$23 | +$24 | +$27 | +$39 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$44 | +$50 | +$61 | +$123 |
| $25 (+11%) โ target | +$48 | +$55 | +$67 | +$123 |
| $25 (+15%) | +$63 | +$71 | +$87 | +$123 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$78 | +$88 | +$105 | +$123 |
Uses DBX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.