Target Price Playground
DBX
$22.06
๐ข
DBX IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 98.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $20 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.37 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.74 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DBX hits $20 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$86 (135.8%) on $64 risked, vs $-256 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $2,206. Options give 11.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DBX is at $20. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DBX hits $20 by Jun 19
+$86
+135.8% on $64 risked
Max Profit
+$86
If the stock โค $20 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$64
Net debit
Break-even
$21.36
-3.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.41 / -0.1 / 0.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DBX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 (-20%) | +$66 | +$73 | +$82 | +$87 |
| $19 (-15%) | +$53 | +$59 | +$71 | +$87 |
| $20 (-12%) โ target | +$42 | +$47 | +$57 | +$87 |
| $20 (-10%) | +$36 | +$41 | +$50 | +$87 |
| $21 (-5%) | +$18 | +$19 | +$21 | +$41 |
| $22 (-2%) | +$8 | +$6 | +$3 | -$25 |
| $22 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$2 | -$9 | -$63 |
| $23 (+2%) | -$6 | -$10 | -$19 | -$63 |
| $23 (+5%) | -$15 | -$21 | -$32 | -$63 |
| $24 (+10%) | -$29 | -$36 | -$48 | -$63 |
| $25 (+15%) | -$39 | -$47 | -$57 | -$63 |
| $26 (+20%) | -$47 | -$54 | -$61 | -$63 |
Uses DBX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.