Target Price Playground
DBX
$22.06
๐ข
DBX IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 98.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.74 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DBX hits $23 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$74 (3.7%) on $-74 credit (max loss $1,976), vs +$94 (4.3%) for 100 shares on $2,206. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DBX is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DBX hits $23 by Jun 19
+$74
+3.7% on $1,976 max loss
Max Profit
+$74
If the stock โฅ $20 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,976
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$19.76
-10.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
28.65 / 0.87 / -3.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DBX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 (-20%) | -$231 | -$220 | -$211 | -$211 |
| $19 (-15%) | -$152 | -$136 | -$116 | -$101 |
| $20 (-10%) | -$88 | -$67 | -$39 | +$9 |
| $21 (-5%) | -$37 | -$15 | +$15 | +$74 |
| $22 (-2%) | -$13 | +$8 | +$36 | +$74 |
| $22 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$21 | +$47 | +$74 |
| $23 (+2%) | +$12 | +$32 | +$55 | +$74 |
| $23 (+4%) โ target | +$23 | +$42 | +$61 | +$74 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$45 | +$58 | +$70 | +$74 |
| $25 (+15%) | +$56 | +$66 | +$73 | +$74 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$64 | +$70 | +$74 | +$74 |
Uses DBX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.