Target Price Playground
DBX
$22.06
๐ข
DBX IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 98.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $24 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $22.06 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $24 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.84 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DBX hits $24 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$278 (13.1%) on $2,122 risked, vs +$194 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $2,206. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DBX is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DBX hits $24 by Jun 19
+$278
+13.1% on $2,122 risked
Max Profit
+$278
If the stock โฅ $24 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,122
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$21.22
-3.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.08 / 1.14 / -3.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DBX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 (-20%) | -$363 | -$359 | -$357 | -$357 |
| $19 (-15%) | -$260 | -$252 | -$248 | -$247 |
| $20 (-10%) | -$164 | -$150 | -$140 | -$137 |
| $21 (-5%) | -$76 | -$56 | -$36 | -$26 |
| $22 (-2%) | -$29 | -$5 | +$22 | +$40 |
| $22 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$27 | +$57 | +$84 |
| $23 (+2%) | +$27 | +$56 | +$90 | +$128 |
| $23 (+5%) | +$65 | +$95 | +$134 | +$194 |
| $24 (+9%) โ target | +$106 | +$138 | +$179 | +$278 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$117 | +$150 | +$191 | +$278 |
| $25 (+15%) | +$158 | +$190 | +$229 | +$278 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$189 | +$218 | +$251 | +$278 |
Uses DBX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.