Target Price Playground
DBX
$22.06
๐ข
DBX IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 98.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $21 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $22 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.39 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.92 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DBX hits $21 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$92 (196.8%) on $47 risked, vs $-106 (-4.8%) for 100 shares on $2,206. Options give 41.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DBX is at $21. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DBX hits $21 by Jun 19
+$92
+196.8% on $47 risked
Max Profit
+$89
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$46
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$22.94
+4.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.44 / 0.18 / 1.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DBX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 (-20%) | +$47 | +$50 | +$52 | +$47 |
| $19 (-15%) | +$45 | +$50 | +$55 | +$53 |
| $20 (-10%) | +$40 | +$46 | +$55 | +$68 |
| $21 (-5%) โ target | +$32 | +$37 | +$47 | +$101 |
| $22 (-2%) | +$27 | +$31 | +$39 | +$65 |
| $22 (0%) โ spot | +$23 | +$26 | +$33 | +$43 |
| $23 (+2%) | +$18 | +$21 | +$25 | +$25 |
| $23 (+5%) | +$12 | +$13 | +$13 | +$2 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$1 | -$1 | -$5 | -$22 |
| $25 (+15%) | -$10 | -$13 | -$20 | -$36 |
| $26 (+20%) | -$19 | -$23 | -$31 | -$42 |
Uses DBX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.