Target Price Playground
DBX
$22.06
๐ข
DBX IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 98.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $25 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $22.06 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.92 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DBX hits $25 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$152 (6.6%) on $2,298 risked, vs +$244 (11.1%) for 100 shares on $2,206. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DBX is at $25. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DBX hits $25 by Jun 19
+$152
+6.6% on $2,298 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$198
Put floors you at $21
Break-even
$22.98
+4.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.37 / -0.92 / 3.45
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DBX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 (-20%) | -$187 | -$195 | -$201 | -$198 |
| $19 (-15%) | -$160 | -$175 | -$191 | -$198 |
| $20 (-10%) | -$120 | -$140 | -$166 | -$198 |
| $21 (-5%) | -$67 | -$89 | -$119 | -$198 |
| $22 (-2%) | -$28 | -$51 | -$81 | -$136 |
| $22 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$22 | -$51 | -$92 |
| $23 (+2%) | +$30 | +$9 | -$18 | -$48 |
| $23 (+5%) | +$79 | +$59 | +$36 | +$18 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$168 | +$152 | +$136 | +$129 |
| $25 (+11%) โ target | +$187 | +$172 | +$158 | +$152 |
| $25 (+15%) | +$263 | +$251 | +$241 | +$239 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$363 | +$355 | +$350 | +$349 |
Uses DBX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.