Target Price Playground
DBX
$22.06
๐ข
DBX IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 98.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $25 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.61 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DBX hits $25 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$89 (54.9%) on $161 risked, vs +$244 (11.1%) for 100 shares on $2,206. Options give 4.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DBX is at $25. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DBX hits $25 by Jun 19
+$89
+54.9% on $161 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$161
Premium paid
Break-even
$23.61
+7.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.95 / -1.24 / 3.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DBX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $18 (-20%) | -$144 | -$154 | -$160 | -$161 |
| $19 (-15%) | -$126 | -$142 | -$156 | -$161 |
| $20 (-10%) | -$97 | -$119 | -$144 | -$161 |
| $21 (-5%) | -$55 | -$82 | -$116 | -$161 |
| $22 (-2%) | -$23 | -$52 | -$89 | -$161 |
| $22 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$29 | -$67 | -$155 |
| $23 (+2%) | +$26 | -$4 | -$42 | -$111 |
| $23 (+5%) | +$68 | +$39 | +$3 | -$45 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$148 | +$121 | +$91 | +$66 |
| $25 (+11%) โ target | +$165 | +$139 | +$111 | +$89 |
| $25 (+15%) | +$235 | +$213 | +$190 | +$176 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$330 | +$312 | +$295 | +$286 |
Uses DBX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.