Target Price Playground
DDOG
$105.37
๐ข
DDOG IV: 62.1% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 80.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.15 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.62 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DDOG hits $120 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$647 (183.3%) on $353 risked, vs +$1,463 (13.9%) for 100 shares on $10,537. Options give 13.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DDOG is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DDOG hits $120 by Jun 19
+$647
+183.3% on $353 risked
Max Profit
+$647
If the stock โฅ $115 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$353
Net debit
Break-even
$108.53
+3.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.44 / -0.42 / -0.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DDOG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $84 (-20%) | -$211 | -$249 | -$307 | -$353 |
| $90 (-15%) | -$156 | -$193 | -$259 | -$353 |
| $95 (-10%) | -$95 | -$124 | -$187 | -$353 |
| $100 (-5%) | -$28 | -$46 | -$91 | -$353 |
| $103 (-2%) | +$13 | +$3 | -$26 | -$353 |
| $105 (0%) โ spot | +$41 | +$36 | +$19 | -$316 |
| $107 (+2%) | +$68 | +$70 | +$66 | -$105 |
| $111 (+5%) | +$109 | +$120 | +$136 | +$211 |
| $116 (+10%) | +$176 | +$201 | +$248 | +$647 |
| $120 (+14%) โ target | +$225 | +$260 | +$326 | +$647 |
| $121 (+15%) | +$238 | +$276 | +$347 | +$647 |
| $126 (+20%) | +$296 | +$344 | +$430 | +$647 |
Uses DDOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.