Target Price Playground
DDOG
$105.37
๐ข
DDOG IV: 62.1% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 80.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $93 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.8 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $97 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.06 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DDOG hits $93 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$226 (39.4%) on $574 risked, vs $-1,237 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $10,537. Options give 3.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DDOG is at $93. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DDOG hits $93 by Jun 19
+$226
+39.4% on $574 risked
Max Profit
+$226
If the stock โค $97 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$574
Net debit
Break-even
$99.26
-5.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-13.04 / -1.47 / 1.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DDOG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $84 (-20%) | +$42 | +$71 | +$127 | +$226 |
| $90 (-15%) | -$14 | +$8 | +$54 | +$226 |
| $93 (-12%) โ target | -$53 | -$38 | -$4 | +$226 |
| $95 (-10%) | -$73 | -$63 | -$37 | +$226 |
| $100 (-5%) | -$133 | -$136 | -$138 | -$84 |
| $103 (-2%) | -$169 | -$180 | -$199 | -$400 |
| $105 (0%) โ spot | -$192 | -$208 | -$238 | -$574 |
| $107 (+2%) | -$215 | -$235 | -$275 | -$574 |
| $111 (+5%) | -$247 | -$274 | -$327 | -$574 |
| $116 (+10%) | -$298 | -$334 | -$401 | -$574 |
| $121 (+15%) | -$343 | -$385 | -$458 | -$574 |
| $126 (+20%) | -$383 | -$428 | -$499 | -$574 |
Uses DDOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.