Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DDOG hits $110 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$706 (7.9%) on $-706 credit (max loss $8,994), vs +$463 (4.4%) for 100 shares on $10,537. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DDOG is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DDOG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $84 (-20%) | -$989 | -$855 | -$696 | -$564 |
| $90 (-15%) | -$679 | -$521 | -$319 | -$38 |
| $95 (-10%) | -$412 | -$239 | -$10 | +$489 |
| $100 (-5%) | -$187 | -$8 | +$227 | +$706 |
| $103 (-2%) | -$70 | +$107 | +$337 | +$706 |
| $105 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$175 | +$399 | +$706 |
| $107 (+2%) | +$65 | +$237 | +$452 | +$706 |
| $110 (+4%) โ target | +$135 | +$302 | +$505 | +$706 |
| $116 (+10%) | +$275 | +$426 | +$593 | +$706 |
| $121 (+15%) | +$373 | +$507 | +$641 | +$706 |
| $126 (+20%) | +$450 | +$566 | +$670 | +$706 |