Target Price Playground
DDOG
$105.37
๐ข
DDOG IV: 62.1% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 80.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $105.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.62 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DDOG hits $115 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,825 (18.9%) on $9,675 risked, vs +$963 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $10,537. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DDOG is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DDOG hits $115 by Jun 19
+$1,825
+18.9% on $9,675 risked
Max Profit
+$1,825
If the stock โฅ $115 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$9,675
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$96.75
-8.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.08 / 9.39 / -18.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DDOG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $84 (-20%) | -$1,431 | -$1,335 | -$1,262 | -$1,245 |
| $90 (-15%) | -$1,009 | -$881 | -$764 | -$719 |
| $95 (-10%) | -$621 | -$460 | -$291 | -$192 |
| $100 (-5%) | -$270 | -$79 | +$142 | +$335 |
| $103 (-2%) | -$77 | +$129 | +$378 | +$651 |
| $105 (0%) โ spot | +$44 | +$259 | +$524 | +$862 |
| $107 (+2%) | +$159 | +$382 | +$661 | +$1,073 |
| $111 (+5%) | +$320 | +$552 | +$848 | +$1,389 |
| $115 (+9%) โ target | +$521 | +$761 | +$1,069 | +$1,825 |
| $121 (+15%) | +$766 | +$1,008 | +$1,315 | +$1,825 |
| $126 (+20%) | +$941 | +$1,177 | +$1,467 | +$1,825 |
Uses DDOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.