Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DELL hits $185 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,000 (6.5%) on $-1,000 credit (max loss $15,500), vs +$720 (4.0%) for 100 shares on $17,780. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DELL is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DELL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $142 (-20%) | -$1,695 | -$1,537 | -$1,366 | -$1,276 |
| $151 (-15%) | -$1,121 | -$918 | -$665 | -$387 |
| $160 (-10%) | -$637 | -$404 | -$97 | +$502 |
| $169 (-5%) | -$240 | +$4 | +$326 | +$1,000 |
| $174 (-2%) | -$41 | +$201 | +$513 | +$1,000 |
| $178 (0%) โ spot | +$77 | +$314 | +$613 | +$1,000 |
| $181 (+2%) | +$184 | +$414 | +$696 | +$1,000 |
| $185 (+4%) โ target | +$282 | +$503 | +$765 | +$1,000 |
| $196 (+10%) | +$512 | +$700 | +$895 | +$1,000 |
| $204 (+15%) | +$652 | +$809 | +$950 | +$1,000 |
| $213 (+20%) | +$755 | +$881 | +$977 | +$1,000 |