Target Price Playground
DELL
$177.80
๐ข
DELL IV: 52.4% โ LOW
(-28.9% vs 30d avg of 73.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $177.8 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.35 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DELL hits $195 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$485 (2.6%) on $19,015 risked, vs +$1,720 (9.7%) for 100 shares on $17,780. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DELL is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if DELL hits $195 by Jun 19
+$485
+2.6% on $19,015 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,015
Put floors you at $170
Break-even
$190.15
+6.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.99 / -11.17 / 29.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DELL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $142 (-20%) | -$1,704 | -$1,842 | -$1,976 | -$2,015 |
| $151 (-15%) | -$1,432 | -$1,620 | -$1,840 | -$2,015 |
| $160 (-10%) | -$1,074 | -$1,300 | -$1,591 | -$2,015 |
| $169 (-5%) | -$629 | -$876 | -$1,204 | -$2,015 |
| $174 (-2%) | -$322 | -$573 | -$905 | -$1,591 |
| $178 (0%) โ spot | -$102 | -$352 | -$678 | -$1,235 |
| $181 (+2%) | +$131 | -$116 | -$431 | -$879 |
| $187 (+5%) | +$500 | +$262 | -$29 | -$346 |
| $195 (+10%) โ target | +$1,120 | +$905 | +$662 | +$485 |
| $204 (+15%) | +$1,883 | +$1,700 | +$1,517 | +$1,432 |
| $213 (+20%) | +$2,644 | +$2,493 | +$2,362 | +$2,321 |
Uses DELL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.