Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DLB hits $64 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$125 (2.3%) on $-125 credit (max loss $5,475), vs +$339 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $6,061. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DLB is at $64. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DLB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 (-20%) | -$639 | -$625 | -$617 | -$626 |
| $52 (-15%) | -$410 | -$378 | -$342 | -$323 |
| $55 (-10%) | -$226 | -$182 | -$123 | -$20 |
| $58 (-5%) | -$91 | -$44 | +$18 | +$125 |
| $59 (-2%) | -$32 | +$13 | +$67 | +$125 |
| $61 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$41 | +$88 | +$125 |
| $62 (+2%) | +$27 | +$63 | +$102 | +$125 |
| $64 (+6%) โ target | +$62 | +$91 | +$116 | +$125 |
| $67 (+10%) | +$90 | +$110 | +$123 | +$125 |
| $70 (+15%) | +$108 | +$119 | +$125 | +$125 |
| $73 (+20%) | +$117 | +$123 | +$125 | +$125 |