Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If DOCU hits $45 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$214 (5.8%) on $-214 credit (max loss $3,686), vs +$211 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $4,289. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if DOCU is at $45. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| DOCU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $34 (-20%) | -$395 | -$350 | -$296 | -$255 |
| $36 (-15%) | -$267 | -$211 | -$141 | -$40 |
| $39 (-10%) | -$159 | -$99 | -$18 | +$174 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$71 | -$9 | +$72 | +$214 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$27 | +$34 | +$111 | +$214 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$58 | +$131 | +$214 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$23 | +$80 | +$149 | +$214 |
| $45 (+5%) โ target | +$54 | +$108 | +$168 | +$214 |
| $47 (+10%) | +$97 | +$144 | +$191 | +$214 |
| $49 (+15%) | +$129 | +$168 | +$202 | +$214 |
| $51 (+20%) | +$153 | +$184 | +$209 | +$214 |