Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If EA hits $215 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$120 (0.7%) on $-120 credit (max loss $18,380), vs +$1,226 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $20,274. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if EA is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| EA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162 (-20%) | -$2,009 | -$2,059 | -$2,109 | -$2,161 |
| $172 (-15%) | -$1,019 | -$1,052 | -$1,095 | -$1,147 |
| $182 (-10%) | -$246 | -$219 | -$181 | -$133 |
| $193 (-5%) | +$68 | +$90 | +$112 | +$120 |
| $199 (-2%) | +$110 | +$117 | +$120 | +$120 |
| $203 (0%) โ spot | +$117 | +$119 | +$120 | +$120 |
| $207 (+2%) | +$119 | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 |
| $213 (+5%) | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 |
| $215 (+6%) โ target | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 |
| $223 (+10%) | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 |
| $233 (+15%) | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 |
| $243 (+20%) | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 | +$120 |