Target Price Playground
ESTC
$43.30
๐ข
ESTC IV: 61.1% โ LOW
(-18.6% vs 30d avg of 75.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $38 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.62 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $40 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.17 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ESTC hits $38 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$155 (106.9%) on $145 risked, vs $-530 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $4,330. Options give 8.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ESTC is at $38. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ESTC hits $38 by Jun 19
+$155
+106.9% on $145 risked
Max Profit
+$155
If the stock โค $40 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$145
Net debit
Break-even
$41.55
-4.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.45 / -0.21 / 0.56
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ESTC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 (-20%) | +$84 | +$95 | +$115 | +$155 |
| $37 (-15%) | +$64 | +$71 | +$88 | +$155 |
| $38 (-12%) โ target | +$52 | +$57 | +$70 | +$155 |
| $39 (-10%) | +$42 | +$46 | +$55 | +$155 |
| $41 (-5%) | +$21 | +$20 | +$19 | +$42 |
| $42 (-2%) | +$8 | +$4 | -$3 | -$88 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$6 | -$17 | -$145 |
| $44 (+2%) | -$8 | -$16 | -$31 | -$145 |
| $45 (+5%) | -$20 | -$30 | -$49 | -$145 |
| $48 (+10%) | -$38 | -$51 | -$76 | -$145 |
| $50 (+15%) | -$55 | -$70 | -$98 | -$145 |
| $52 (+20%) | -$69 | -$86 | -$113 | -$145 |
Uses ESTC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.