Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ESTC hits $45 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$317 (8.6%) on $-317 credit (max loss $3,683), vs +$170 (3.9%) for 100 shares on $4,330. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ESTC is at $45. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ESTC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 (-20%) | -$407 | -$349 | -$279 | -$219 |
| $37 (-15%) | -$281 | -$212 | -$125 | -$3 |
| $39 (-10%) | -$171 | -$96 | +$3 | +$214 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$78 | -$1 | +$101 | +$317 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$30 | +$48 | +$148 | +$317 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$77 | +$175 | +$317 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$27 | +$103 | +$198 | +$317 |
| $45 (+4%) โ target | +$52 | +$126 | +$217 | +$317 |
| $45 (+5%) | +$64 | +$137 | +$226 | +$317 |
| $48 (+10%) | +$117 | +$185 | +$261 | +$317 |
| $50 (+15%) | +$160 | +$220 | +$283 | +$317 |
| $52 (+20%) | +$194 | +$247 | +$297 | +$317 |