Target Price Playground
ESTC
$43.30
๐ก
ESTC IV: 67.6% โ NORMAL
(-9.9% vs 30d avg of 75.0%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $47 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $43.3 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $47 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.68 ยท ฮ 0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ESTC hits $47 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$738 (18.6%) on $3,962 risked, vs +$370 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $4,330. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ESTC is at $47. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ESTC hits $47 by Jun 19
+$738
+18.6% on $3,962 risked
Max Profit
+$738
If the stock โฅ $47 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,962
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$39.62
-8.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.4 / 3.9 / -7.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ESTC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 (-20%) | -$589 | -$545 | -$508 | -$498 |
| $37 (-15%) | -$421 | -$362 | -$306 | -$282 |
| $39 (-10%) | -$265 | -$193 | -$116 | -$65 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$125 | -$41 | +$57 | +$151 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$48 | +$42 | +$151 | +$281 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$94 | +$209 | +$368 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$46 | +$143 | +$264 | +$455 |
| $45 (+5%) | +$110 | +$210 | +$338 | +$584 |
| $47 (+9%) โ target | +$180 | +$283 | +$414 | +$738 |
| $48 (+10%) | +$207 | +$310 | +$442 | +$738 |
| $50 (+15%) | +$290 | +$393 | +$524 | +$738 |
| $52 (+20%) | +$361 | +$462 | +$586 | +$738 |
Uses ESTC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.