Target Price Playground
ESTC
$43.30
๐ก
ESTC IV: 67.6% โ NORMAL
(-9.9% vs 30d avg of 75.0%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $41 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $43 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.47 ยท ฮ -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $41 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.62 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ESTC hits $41 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$228 (123.3%) on $185 risked, vs $-230 (-5.3%) for 100 shares on $4,330. Options give 23.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ESTC is at $41. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ESTC hits $41 by Jun 19
+$228
+123.3% on $185 risked
Max Profit
+$227
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$156
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$46.38
+7.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.17 / 0.49 / 1.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ESTC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 (-20%) | +$26 | +$38 | +$54 | +$46 |
| $37 (-15%) | +$24 | +$39 | +$63 | +$87 |
| $39 (-10%) | +$18 | +$35 | +$64 | +$149 |
| $41 (-5%) โ target | +$11 | +$27 | +$57 | +$228 |
| $42 (-2%) | +$5 | +$19 | +$47 | +$154 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$14 | +$39 | +$114 |
| $44 (+2%) | -$4 | +$8 | +$31 | +$77 |
| $45 (+5%) | -$12 | -$1 | +$17 | +$30 |
| $48 (+10%) | -$25 | -$18 | -$10 | -$35 |
| $50 (+15%) | -$39 | -$37 | -$38 | -$82 |
| $52 (+20%) | -$53 | -$55 | -$64 | -$116 |
Uses ESTC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.