Target Price Playground
ESTC
$43.30
๐ก
ESTC IV: 67.6% โ NORMAL
(-9.9% vs 30d avg of 75.0%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $38 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.62 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ESTC hits $38 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$38 (8.2%) on $462 risked, vs $-530 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $4,330. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ESTC is at $38. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ESTC hits $38 by Jun 19
+$38
+8.2% on $462 risked
Max Profit
+$3,838
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$462
Premium paid
Break-even
$38.38
-11.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-42.18 / -3.37 / 7.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ESTC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 (-20%) | +$491 | +$443 | +$394 | +$374 |
| $37 (-15%) | +$345 | +$284 | +$213 | +$158 |
| $38 (-12%) โ target | +$270 | +$203 | +$121 | +$38 |
| $39 (-10%) | +$213 | +$142 | +$52 | -$59 |
| $41 (-5%) | +$99 | +$21 | -$83 | -$275 |
| $42 (-2%) | +$38 | -$43 | -$151 | -$405 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$82 | -$192 | -$462 |
| $44 (+2%) | -$36 | -$119 | -$228 | -$462 |
| $45 (+5%) | -$84 | -$167 | -$275 | -$462 |
| $48 (+10%) | -$155 | -$236 | -$337 | -$462 |
| $50 (+15%) | -$214 | -$291 | -$381 | -$462 |
| $52 (+20%) | -$263 | -$333 | -$411 | -$462 |
Uses ESTC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.