Target Price Playground
ESTC
$43.30
๐ข
ESTC IV: 61.1% โ LOW
(-18.6% vs 30d avg of 75.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $48 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $43.3 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $41 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.62 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ESTC hits $48 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$108 (2.3%) on $4,692 risked, vs +$470 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $4,330. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ESTC is at $48. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ESTC hits $48 by Jun 19
+$108
+2.3% on $4,692 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$592
Put floors you at $41
Break-even
$46.92
+8.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.13 / -3.26 / 6.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ESTC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 (-20%) | -$430 | -$485 | -$548 | -$592 |
| $37 (-15%) | -$348 | -$414 | -$497 | -$592 |
| $39 (-10%) | -$248 | -$322 | -$419 | -$592 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$132 | -$210 | -$314 | -$579 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$55 | -$134 | -$238 | -$449 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$79 | -$183 | -$362 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$57 | -$22 | -$123 | -$275 |
| $45 (+5%) | +$145 | +$68 | -$28 | -$146 |
| $48 (+11%) โ target | +$332 | +$260 | +$177 | +$108 |
| $50 (+15%) | +$472 | +$405 | +$333 | +$287 |
| $52 (+20%) | +$650 | +$591 | +$532 | +$504 |
Uses ESTC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.